The Gamer: Cup Series at Texas
By David Smith (on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA)
November 1, 2012
Are you a fantasy NASCAR player or regular NASCAR bettor curious for some advice on the upcoming weekend? Let MotorsportsAnalytics.com be your guide to making the right pick. The Gamer is a weekly article that will help you set your rosters for optimal performance and place your bets with confidence.
Sunday will be the 10th COT era race at Texas Motor Speedway, meaning we have nine races of data to glean in preparation for the weekend via our Production in Equal Equipment Ratings. Some subjectivity, mainly surrounding drivers with Chase implications, played a big role in this weekend’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series picks, sleepers and avoidables. A few items to note before perusing this week’s recommendations:
- Tires are not a concern this weekend. Goodyear is bringing back the Code No. 4392 / Code No. 4410 compounds that ran in April and in 2011. With the car, the tire and the track surface all unchanged, teams have a solid supply of notes from past races. Put some emphasis on the top-producing drivers and teams when making your selections.
- For the race at Texas earlier this year, my recommended bet was Greg Biffle at 10-1. Probably by virtue of his poor Chase, he’s still a 10-1 bet even though he steamrolled the field in April. Take note of that. Interestingly enough, Denny Hamlin – who I consider a favorite this weekend – dropped from 12-1 to 5-1 after finishing 12th there in the spring, making him far less valuable of a bet. (Originally I thought this would be a pick on which to pounce, but no dice. Thanks, Vegas.) For the best betting value, take a gander at positions three through five in my primary picks ... Read More
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David Smith is the Editor-in-Chief of Motorsports Analytics and the host of The David Smith Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA.