The Gamer: Cup & Nationwide at Kansas
By David Smith (on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA)
October 18, 2012
Are you a fantasy NASCAR player or regular NASCAR bettor curious for some advice on the upcoming weekend? Let MotorsportsAnalytics.com be your guide to making the right pick. The Gamer is a weekly article that will help you set your rosters for optimal performance and place your bets with confidence.
Kansas Speedway is the fifth refurbished racetrack the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will tackle since November of 2011. Even with six races of data from Cup races at Kansas during the COT era (updated Production in Equal Equipment Ratings specifically for the track are in the chart below), we cannot fully trust the information since this weekend’s races will be the first on the freshly paved surface. Though flawed, we will use the information we have for this week’s Gamer picks, but I also have a crazy idea on how to capitalize on the prospect of team success on new pavement.
- So how on earth can we make an informed prediction about a race on new pavement? How about we do a completely unscientific, informal pattern recognition exercise? Write down all of the top-10 finishers in the four “new pavement” races in the last year (those races included last November’s Phoenix race, June’s Pocono race, June’s Michigan race and August’s Bristol race). Now, make sure that driver and the crew chief he had with him in those specific races are still an intact combination. If they are, put check marks by each of the top-10 finishes they earned together. We will call this our “Quick Learners Chart.”
- The Goodyear tire recommendation for this weekend is Code No. 4558 on the left sides and Code No. 4560 on the right sides. This is different from the tire combination used in the spring race (No. 4382 lefts, No. 4408 rights) at Kansas, so in addition to new pavement, there are new tires, rendering the “feel” of the cars in the spring obsolete. The 4558-4560 combo was also used in August’s race at Michigan International Speedway. While the tires will roll out with different pressures on this 1.5-mile track than they did at the two-mile MIS, put another check mark on the Quick Learners Chart by the teams able to finish in the top 10 on these tires in August.
- Now, let us focus on the driver-crew chief pairings with two check marks or more ... Read More
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David Smith is the Editor-in-Chief of Motorsports Analytics and the host of The David Smith Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA.