Motorsports Analytics

By David Smith (on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA)
October 12, 2012

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With a few headaches, Regan Smith became the most unlikely Hendrick Motorsports driver since Wally Dallenbach.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s inclusion in the last lap accident at Talladega Superspeedway left him publicly frustrated, which may or may not have had anything to do with his recent restrictor plate results as a whole. It also left him with a concussion that will take him out of the Hendrick No. 88 for at least two races, at Charlotte Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway, and effectively end any (statistically miniscule) hope of winning the championship.

Hendrick hurried Smith, who originally planned to pilot the No. 51 Phoenix Racing entry this weekend, into the seat of the No. 88 on Thursday morning. It seems as if Smith is a prime candidate for one of the two JR Motorsports rides, where Rick Hendrick is a minority owner, in the NASCAR Nationwide Series for the 2013 season.

So what can crew chief Steve Letarte and the No. 88 bunch expect with Smith behind the wheel? As our chart below depicts, it all depends on which version of Smith shows up these next two races.

From a production standpoint, Smith’s high serviceable rating (1.833 PEER in 2011) dropping to a middle-of-the-road replacement-level rating (0.625 PEER in 2012) is never a good thing, though it reeks of regression toward the mean. Unfortunately, neither his 2011 rating nor his 2012 rating are in the stratosphere of the 2.650 PEER Earnhardt had — his best production rating since 2004 by the way — in this season’s first 30 races. As crazy it may sound to skeptics of all things Dale Jr., Earnhardt will be missed mightily by his team the next two weeks. Smith might not be Earnhardt, but what will he be?

Smith will be a serviceable producer in elite equipment. Let’s face it, the No. 78 Furniture Row Racing team lacks the “accent pieces,” if you will, of a prototypical winning race team; both last year and this year, Smith was forced to put up with a team that earned 50.00 Relevance percentages (read: the percentage of races finished in the top half of the field) each year, one of which he overcame, the other to which he contributed. Compared to the snow plow he was piloting for Furniture Row, Smith will be manning a Cadillac on Saturday. It is more than an educated assumption that he will be bringing his full driving repertoire to the part of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series garage with waterfront property.
The No. 88 team will still be most effective toward the end of a race. In terms of race approach, Smith is a watered-down version of Earnhardt. The regular proprietor of the No. 88 seat counted down laps with the patience of a saint; he had a Top 15 Efficiency of +6.6 in 2011 and +6.5 in 2012, finishing far better, on average, than his average running position. Smith does the same thing, but on a smaller scale. He had a Top 15 Efficiency of +1.4 in his 2011 breakout season and increased his late lap pouncing in 2012, to +2.7.
As usual, the No. 88 will be a wildcard on green-white-checkered finishes. Both Smith and Earnhardt fluctuated in extended lap performances from last year to this year. According to Extended Lap Adjusted Plus/Minus, my metric for measuring passing and position retainment value in green-white-checkered situations, both drivers were on the up and up in 2011 (Smith had an ELA +/- of +2.642 while Earnhardt had a +1.607) and suffered a drop this year (Smith now with a -0.717, Earnhardt with a +0.948). A lack of consistency between the two seasons means a mixed bag of expectations. Either way, the “?” doodled in Letarte’s notes on G-W-C’s remains intact for the next two weekends.
The fab shop better be on call 24/7 for the next 10 days because damn. That’s right: damn. The dutiful team that Letarte has assembled has been on a mere vacation this season because of Earnhardt’s ability to avoid a large quantity of crashes. Earnhardt’s Crash Frequency for 2012 is an extremely admirable 0.07 or, in other words, two crashes in 30 races. Smith has the second highest Crash Frequency (0.37, almost double the series average of 0.19) among full-time Cuppers (second, ironically, to the guy that replaced him at Furniture Row, Kurt Busch) with 11 crashes in the same time frame though just one of them was actually terminal. But still. Damn.
The chemistry that Earnhardt and Letarte had won’t be replicated in two races. But when is it ever? By many accounts (including my own), Smith is a good guy with a tremendous amount of respect for the sport. The guy that was sure he wasn’t supposed to win the Southern 500 last year will take a powerful ride in Hendrick equipment very seriously. Additionally, he is a relatable, blue-collar, hockey-loving guy who happens to be joining a hard-working team that has amassed two 80-plus Relevance seasons in the last two years. No, the tenured trust they have with Earnhardt won’t exist with Smith, but there is no reason to think that personalities will clash.

As it stands, this post is probably part one of two, the second eventually being an observation on the aftermath following Smith’s stint at Hendrick. Will his substitute role be reminiscent of Sam Hornish’s sneaky underwhelming fill-in performance in the No. 22 car this year or will it remind many of Jamie McMurray subbing for injured title contender Sterling Marlin and winning at Charlotte 10 years ago this week?

This role provides a double-edged sword for Smith who, despite his 161 career Cup Series starts, is still a misunderstood commodity among team decision makers. If he excels, he’s racing on Sundays next year. If he stumbles and AJ Allmendinger thrives in the No. 51 car Smith abandoned for this ride, the Nationwide Series might provide his gig. The No. 88 team, the sport’s most popular entry, was one in which Smith could not turn down. At least he is taking the risk.

Regardless, we know what to realistically expect. What actually transpires remains to be seen.

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