Searching for NASCAR's Triple Crown Winners
By David Smith (on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA)
October 5, 2012
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This week Miguel Cabrera became the first baseball player in 45 years to win the elusive “Triple Crown,” a titular award for a player who leads his league in home runs, batting average and runs batted in (RBI).
In auto racing, there is no such “award,” but if there was, what would it look like? It would be difficult for a triumvirate of PEER, ELA +/- and some other equipment-weighted statistic to catch on with the masses, so any category will most certainly be impacted by the strength of the driver’s team. Even for a statistical snob like me, this isn’t a deal breaker; after all, we’re creating a mythical award based off of another mythical award that rewards a player who bats base runners in despite having no impact in them reaching base in the first place.
One thing this is not is a version of horse racing’s Triple Crown. To win three prestigious races, say Daytona, Indianapolis and Charlotte, is a whole other conversation. Plus, I’m pretty sure it existed once as The Winston Million.
So here is my crack at a NASCAR-style Triple Crown:
Category 1: Wins
I have long compared one race to a single at-bat, thus a race win is the loose equivalent of a home run. He (or she) who leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in wins over the course of the season, regardless of the number of starts, leads this category.
Category 2: Average Finish
We need an average of something that is easily identifiable (read: none of the more nuanced statistics) that also could be hotly debated. Batting average is a subject of ire because not all players hit inside ballparks with identical dimensions. Well, drivers compete in cars with different sizes of engines, ages of chassis, levels of intelligence in setup, etc. Because it is possible for a driver to enter one race, win, and then quit for the season with an average finish of 1.0, I am enforcing a rule that a driver must compete in 70 percent of all races in a season to be considered eligible. For batting average to count, a player must have at least 3.1 at bats per number of team games played, so this should not be viewed as a lofty request.
Category 3: Laps Led
A large portion of the baseball statistical community will tell you that an RBI is credit a player gets for another player’s work; however, there is some credible defense to the continuation of this old school box score stat. Laps led is a counted statistic that … really doesn’t matter all that much other than it is a good indicator of a racecar’s ability to dominate. The goal of auto racing is to be in the highest position possible at the conclusion of the race’s final lap; therefore, laps led should be taken with a shaker of salt.
Having said all that, laps led, when coupled with wins and average finish for a singular metric (a + b + c = Triple Crown), does make a for a powerful season. As a matter of fact, that combination should net a driver (and team) a championship.
Implementation
I took an extra step and retroactively applied the Triple Crown to every past season of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series dating back to 1949.
Here is your list of statistical leaders from 1949 to 1987 with Triple Crown winners bolded:
| Year |
Wins Leader(s) |
Average Finish Leader |
Laps Led Leader(s) |
| 1949 |
R. Byron, B. Flock |
Lee Petty |
Bill Blair |
| 1950 |
Curtis Turner |
Lee Petty |
Curtis Turner |
| 1951 |
Fonty Flock |
Tim Flock |
Fonty Flock |
| 1952 |
T. Flock, H. Thomas |
Lee Petty |
Tim Flock |
| 1953 |
Herb Thomas |
Herb Thomas |
Herb Thomas |
| 1954 |
Herb Thomas |
Lee Petty |
Herb Thomas |
| 1955 |
Tim Flock |
Tim Flock |
Tim Flock |
| 1956 |
Buck Baker |
Buck Baker |
Speedy Thompson |
| 1957 |
Buck Baker |
Buck Baker |
Fireball Roberts |
| 1958 |
Lee Petty |
Lee Petty |
Fireball Roberts |
| 1959 |
Lee Petty |
Lee Petty |
Lee Petty |
| 1960 |
Rex White |
Lee Petty |
Rex White |
| 1961 |
Joe Weatherly |
Rex White |
Junior Johnson |
| 1962 |
Joe Weatherly |
Joe Weatherly |
Richard Petty |
| 1963 |
Richard Petty |
Fred Lorenzen |
Fred Lorenzen |
| 1964 |
Ned Jarrett |
Richard Petty |
Ned Jarrett |
| 1965 |
N. Jarrett, Ju. Johnson |
Ned Jarrett |
Junior Johnson |
| 1966 |
David Pearson |
David Pearson |
David Pearson |
| 1967 |
Richard Petty |
Richard Petty |
Richard Petty |
| 1968 |
D. Pearson, R. Petty |
David Pearson |
Richard Petty |
| 1969 |
Bobby Isaac |
David Pearson |
Bobby Isaac |
| 1970 |
Richard Petty |
Richard Petty |
B. Allison, B. Isaac, R. Petty |
| 1971 |
Richard Petty |
Richard Petty |
Richard Petty |
| 1972 |
Bobby Allison |
Richard Petty |
Bobby Allison |
| 1973 |
David Pearson |
Cale Yarborough |
Cale Yarborough |
| 1974 |
R. Petty, C. Yarborough |
Cale Yarborough |
Cale Yarborough |
| 1975 |
Richard Petty |
Richard Petty |
Richard Petty |
| 1976 |
Cale Yarborough |
David Pearson |
Cale Yarborough |
| 1977 |
Cale Yarborough |
Cale Yarborough |
Cale Yarborough |
| 1978 |
Cale Yarborough |
Cale Yarborough |
Cale Yarborough |
| 1979 |
Darrell Waltrip |
Richard Petty |
Darrell Waltrip |
| 1980 |
Cale Yarborough |
Dale Earnhardt |
Cale Yarborough |
| 1981 |
Darrell Waltrip |
Bobby Allison |
Darrell Waltrip |
| 1982 |
Darrell Waltrip |
Darrell Waltrip |
Darrell Waltrip |
| 1983 |
B. Allison, D. Waltrip |
Bobby Allison |
Darrell Waltrip |
| 1984 |
Darrell Waltrip |
Terry Labonte |
Darrell Waltrip |
| 1985 |
Bill Elliott |
Darrell Waltrip |
Bill Elliott |
| 1986 |
Tim Richmond |
Dale Earnhardt |
Dale Earnhardt |
| 1987 |
Dale Earnhardt |
Dale Earnhardt |
Dale Earnhardt |
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Items to Note:
- From 1949 to 1987, the Triple Crown was a fairly common occurrence. It is fitting that 200-race winner Richard Petty is also a four-time Triple Crown winner, the most out of anyone in NASCAR history. Cale Yarborough won it three times while Herb Thomas, Tim Flock, Lee Petty, David Pearson, Darrell Waltrip and Dale Earnhardt each won it once.
- A Triple Crown does not equal a championship. Richard Petty took the Crown in 1970 when Bobby Isaac claimed his only Sprint Cup Series title. Five years later Petty swiped a championship from Crown winner Cale Yarborough.
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Now for the seasons spanning from 1988 to 2011 where the Triple Crown has become almost as equally elusive as baseball’s award in recent years:
| Year |
Wins Leader(s) |
Average Finish Leader |
Laps Led Leader |
| 1988 |
B. Elliott, R. Wallace |
Bill Elliott |
Dale Earnhardt |
| 1989 |
R. Wallace, D. Waltrip |
Dale Earnhardt |
Dale Earnhardt |
| 1990 |
Dale Earnhardt |
Mark Martin |
Dale Earnhardt |
| 1991 |
D. Allison, H. Gant |
Dale Earnhardt |
Harry Gant |
| 1992 |
D. Allison, B. Elliott |
Alan Kulwicki |
Davey Allison |
| 1993 |
Rusty Wallace |
Dale Earnhardt |
Rusty Wallace |
| 1994 |
Rusty Wallace |
Dale Earnhardt |
Rusty Wallace |
| 1995 |
Jeff Gordon |
Dale Earnhardt |
Jeff Gordon |
| 1996 |
Jeff Gordon |
Terry Labonte |
Jeff Gordon |
| 1997 |
Jeff Gordon |
Mark Martin |
Dale Jarrett |
| 1998 |
Jeff Gordon |
Jeff Gordon |
Mark Martin |
| 1999 |
Jeff Gordon |
Dale Jarrett |
Jeff Gordon |
| 2000 |
Tony Stewart |
Bobby Labonte |
Rusty Wallace |
| 2001 |
Jeff Gordon |
Jeff Gordon |
Jeff Gordon |
| 2002 |
Matt Kenseth |
Mark Martin |
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 2003 |
Ryan Newman |
Matt Kenseth |
Jeff Gordon |
| 2004 |
Jimmie Johnson |
Jeff Gordon |
Jimmie Johnson |
| 2005 |
Greg Biffle |
Tony Stewart |
Tony Stewart |
| 2006 |
Kasey Kahne |
Jimmie Johnson |
Tony Stewart |
| 2007 |
Jimmie Johnson |
Jeff Gordon |
Jeff Gordon |
| 2008 |
Carl Edwards |
Carl Edwards |
Jimmie Johnson |
| 2009 |
Jimmie Johnson |
Jeff Gordon |
Jimmie Johnson |
| 2010 |
Denny Hamlin |
Kevin Harvick |
Jimmie Johnson |
| 2011 |
Tony Stewart |
Carl Edwards |
Kyle Busch |
_____
Items to Note:
- In the last 24 years there has only been one Triple Crown winner in the Cup Series. Jeff Gordon did it en route to a championship in 2001. In seven seasons, each category was led by a different driver.
- Who got close — leading two of the three categories — to the Crown during this time frame? Gordon did five times. Dale Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace and Jimmie Johnson did twice. Bill Elliott, Harry Gant, Davey Allison, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards got close once. For those that reminisce about the old NASCAR and complain that it is not as good as it once was, this Triple Crown should suffice as Exhibit A against the prosecution.
_____
So how about the 2012 racing season? Has any one driver put the nation on Triple Crown alert?
As of right now, Jimmie Johnson is the closest, leading the series in both average finish (10.4) and laps led (1,250). Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin have won five races apiece, while Johnson has scored three victories. With seven races to go, the hunt for this metaphorical award could be really fun to watch, though the implementation of the Chase — we have never had a Triple Crown winner in the Chase era — quells much of the guaranteed feel of a forthcoming championship to go along with the Crown.
But then again, the playoffs for Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers start on Saturday. He may not become a champion. Or the Most Valuable Player. Seems like our sport’s version of the Triple Crown fits right in.
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More on MotorsportsAnalytics.com:
The Gamer: Fantasy and Gambling Picks for NASCAR at Talladega (Premium)
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David Smith is the Editor-in-Chief of Motorsports Analytics and the host of The David Smith Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA. |
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