Replacing Kurt: How Penske Played the Market
By David Smith
February 17, 2012
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The aftermath of Kurt Busch’s tirade on Dr. Jerry Punch going viral left Penske Racing in a precarious position last December. Busch, a champion driver in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and the face of Penkse’s No. 22 Dodge sponsored by Shell, painted himself into a corner with his outburst and forced the Penske organization to reevaluate his employment status.
Busch was fired, no doubt for partaking in irreperable destruction to his personal relationship with Shell. This left Penske Racing – an organization that has amassed 68 victories in the Cup Series – looking for a ripple (read: driver) in a calm ocean (picked-apart driver market).
The early frontrunner, reportedly, was David Ragan. Ragan’s No. 6 team was eliminated as a full-time entry at Roush Fenway Racing after primary sponsor UPS scaled back its involvement with the team. Luckily, Ragan hit the job market after his most noteworthy season as a Cup driver; he pocketed his first win in July’s Firecracker 400 Pepsi 400 Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway and earned a serviceable 1.069 Production in Equal Equipment Rating (PEER), the second-highest rating of his five-year career. Brian Vickers and David Reutimann, as team president Tim Cindric would later state, were also considered; however, based on the sounds emanating from the Penske offices1, Ragan in the 22 car was a foregone conclusion.
So how did Penske land A.J. Allmendinger? Allow me to recap:
1. Penske did not jump to an early conclusion. The only way David Ragan was booking that gig is if Tim Cindric, Mike Nelson and company elected to make a decision immediately after Busch’s dismissal. And there was no other ride that Ragan was going to take instead of the 22. Ragan became their safety net and they decided to allow the driver market to move naturally.
2. The poor sponsor market created an unexpected free agent. Allmendinger’s primary sponsor, Best Buy, moved to Matt Kenseth’s No. 17 team as a partial primary. This left Allmendinger without a major sponsor and, very likely, a ride. A driver market dictated by sponsorship? What a novel concept. But all of a sudden, Penske Racing had a new candidate.
3. Penske properly evaluated both drivers’ abilities. Now with a legitimate personnel decision to make, Penske Racing was in a driver’s seat of its own. Below is each driver’s career, as viewed through advanced metrics.
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David Ragan Career PEER and Relevance
| Year |
Age |
Races |
Relevance |
PEER |
| 2006 |
20 |
2 |
0.00% |
-1.000 |
| 2007 |
21 |
36 |
44.44% |
-0.167 |
| 2008 |
22 |
36 |
72.22% |
1.764 |
| 2009 |
23 |
36 |
30.56% |
0.028 |
| 2010 |
24 |
36 |
50.00% |
0.083 |
| 2011 |
25 |
36 |
61.11% |
1.069 |
| Totals |
|
182 |
51.10% |
0.473 |
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A.J. Allmendinger Career PEER and Relevance
| Year |
Age |
Races |
Relevance |
PEER |
| 2007 |
25 |
17 |
17.65% |
0.309 |
| 2008 |
26 |
27 |
51.85% |
1.009 |
| 2009 |
27 |
36 |
50.00% |
0.514 |
| 2010 |
28 |
36 |
72.22% |
1.500 |
| 2011 |
29 |
36 |
75.00% |
1.389 |
| Totals |
|
152 |
57.89% |
0.967 |
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Visual Comparison: Career PEERs for David Ragan vs. A.J. Allmendinger
* - Includes seasons in which driver has competed in at least five races
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Items to Note:
- Both drivers have been full-time Sprint Cup competitors for the last five years. Allmendinger has been serviceable (1.000 to 1.999) for three of them; Ragan for two.
- Allmendinger’s career PEER through 152 races is 0.967, with a season high of 1.500 in 2010. Ragan’s PEER through 182 races is 0.473, with a best of 1.764 in 2008. In terms of PEER, Allmendinger is the clear winner.
- So what is another major difference between the two? Ragan ran inside the top 15 in 42.7 percent of the total laps run in Cup Series competition in 2011, while finishing in the top 15 in 41.7 percent of the 36 races. This means that Ragan essentially, by one percent, finished worse than where he ran2. The same cannot be said for Allmendinger who obtained a 50.0 percent running/61.1 percent finishing top 15 split, an 11.1 percent uptick that ranked second in the Cup Series behind champion Tony Stewart and one spot ahead of Carl Edwards. Considering that the “taking laps late” strategy employed by Stewart and Edwards led them to a title battle in the final race, Allmendinger was worth the wait in a shallow two-month window. Regardless of whether Allmendinger is just a one-year stopgap3, Penske Racing made a play that landed them maximum value in the market.
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1 Penske Racing does not often leak information. That is what made me, as well other industry insiders, dubious to the initial Ragan rumors.
2 Fun fact: Kurt Busch's top 15 finishing percentage was 1.2 percent worse than his top 15 running percentage in 2011, nearly identical to Ragan’s number. If anything is obvious with the Allmendinger signing, it is that Penske wants that 22 car to close more races.
3 Allmendinger’s contract is, reportedly, for one year.
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More on MotorsportsAnalytics.com:
2012 Driver Projections: Part 1 (33 thru 14) and Part 2 (13 thru 1)
He Raced Me Too Hard: A Misguided Viewpoint on Differing Strategy
So, What Actually Happened in the 2011 Truck Series?
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David Smith is the Editor-in-Chief of Motorsports Analytics. He is also the Director of Talent Development at Spire Sports + Entertainment. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA. |
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