Motorsports Analytics

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“The postseason is a crapshoot … My job is to get us to the playoffs. Everything after that is luck.”
-- Billy Beane, General Manager of MLB’s Oakland Athletics and the subject of the book and movie, Moneyball.

Billy Beane’s (or Paul DePodesta’s) Moneyball statistical theory pertaining to "buying wins versus buying players" is the team-building process that focuses on obtaining victories within the regular season. The primary objective of a baseball team in the regular season is to get to the playoffs. This is no different than the goal of each team in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series through the first 26 races.

The road to the Sprint Cup Chase, one which starts with the Daytona 500, seems to be an undervalued storyline. Those 26 races are the separator of 12 great-to-good teams from a pack of underachievers. What is debated when the Sprint Cup “regular season” is discussed is how a team should go about focusing on those races. Gun for wins? Aim for consistent, high points-paying finishes?

In this instance it pays to be more simple-minded. Just remain relevant and any driver/team combination will have high odds of making the Chase.

By remaining relevant, I mean remaining relevant.

Of all the statistics/metrics I intend on introducing to you, relevance is by far the easiest, but possibly one of the most telling. Relevance is a team statistic, one that measures the driver, the crew and the equipment as a cohesive unit. When compared to the driver-only Production in Equal Equipment Rating (PEER), one can surmise whether or not a driver is carrying the rest of the team and vice versa or if the success of the entire team should be equally recognized.

How is relevance defined? A relevant race is finishing in the top half of the race’s field (in the Sprint Cup Series, this is 21st-place or higher). Cycling back to baseball for a comparison, if winning a race is the NASCAR equivalent of a home run, finishing 21st is hitting a single or being walked. It is reaching base. One cannot score without first reaching base.

Sounds easy enough, right? Can this possibly be a number that tells the story of an entire season? I agree on its simplicity, and it is your right to be immediately dubious, but relevance is the best indicator of a team's Chase chances. In fact, being relevant for at least 80 percent of the first 26 races is practically a stamped ticket to NASCAR’s promised land. How so? Allow me to explain "The Goal of 80."

Since the Chase’s inception in 2004, there have been 46 instances in which a Cup Series driver/team has finished 21st-place or better in the first 26 races at least 80 percent of the time. Out of those 46, 45 drivers/teams qualified for the Chase. That comes out to about 97.8 percent or, in other words, damn good odds. As far as qualifying for NASCAR's Chase goes, 80 percent relevance is the equivalent to baseball's .560 winning percentage, a number that should place a team in the playoffs.

Below are all driver/team relevances for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series from 2004 through 2010. Chase qualifiers are highlighted in gray.

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Driver/Team Relevance for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series – 2004
* - Drivers must have competed in all of the first 26 races

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Item to Note:

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Driver/Team Relevance for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series – 2005
* - Drivers must have competed in all of the first 26 races

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Items to Note:

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Driver/Team Relevance for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series – 2006
* - Drivers must have competed in all of the first 26 races

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Items to Note:

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Driver/Team Relevance for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series – 2007
* - Drivers must have competed in all of the first 26 races

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Item to Note:

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Driver/Team Relevance for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series – 2008
* - Drivers must have competed in all of the first 26 races

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Items to Note:

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Driver/Team Relevance for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series – 2009
* - Drivers must have competed in all of the first 26 races

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Items to Note:

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Driver/Team Relevance for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series – 2010
* - Drivers must have competed in all of the first 26 races

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Item to Note:

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The 2011 season was perhaps the most competive in Chase history, but the competition did not just exist in the final 10 races. Let us view relevance for the the Cup Series drivers that competed in a year that saw 10 drivers/teams hit the 80 percent mark. Some extended items of note are listed below.

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Driver/Team Relevance for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series – 2011
* - Drivers must have competed in all of the first 26 races

1 I am not entirely sure how Bob Osborne was awarded 2011’s Crew Chief of the Year Award, but Letarte should have received extensive consideration based on the sheer improvement of the Dale Earnhardt, Jr./88 team from 2010 to 2011.